Trade with Greece
52
According to the NCHC’s estimates, retail sales
fell to €50 billion in 2012 from €60.5 billion in 2011
and €77 billion in 2008. In other words, turnover
fell by 17.5% in just one year, having contracted
by more than 35% during the five-years of the
recession. In the same period the GDP shrank by
almost 20%.
The findings of the surveys conducted by the
Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) are similar
to the NCHC’s estimates. In the ten months from
January to October 2012, retail trade volume
decreased by 33.7%, as compared to the same
period of 2008. The fuels sector was the “cham-
pion” as far as the drop in sales is concerned, as
trade volume was reduced by 53.9%, owing both
to the over-taxation of fuels and the reduction in
the number of car commutes due to financial
hardship.
The “runner-up” was the large, but highly
demand-elastic, consumer durables market (fur-
niture, electrical equipment, household equip-
ment), where the drop in sales reached 47.6%.
Sales fell by more than 40% in the “clothing-
footwear” and “books-stationery” sectors, which
come next in terms of demand elasticity.
However, as a result of the consumers’ mass shift
towards private label products, even supermar-
kets lost more than 20% of their sales, while this
drop exceeded 30% in specialized food-bever-
ages-tobacco stores (meat stores, fish stores,
bakeries, liquor stores, fruit stores, etc).
The year 2012 has not only been a leap, but also a
bleak, year for retail trade. Although the recession
peaked –based on BoG estimates– in 2011, it
seems that in the case of retailers the worst year
was 2012. As mentioned above, the central bank
estimates that the economy will contract by slightly
more than 6% in 2012. Nonetheless, the ELSTAT’s
official data indicate that the volume of retail trade in
the ten-months from January to October decreased
by 11.7% year-on-year (12.2% including automo-
tive fuel), whereas in 2011 it had recorded a loss of
-8.7% (-10.2% including automotive fuel) and GDP
had contracted by 7.1%.
