prolonged and fruitless negotiations, the referen-
dum, the ensuing bank holiday and the introduc-
tion of capital controls, raised uncertainty, led to a
sharp decline in business confidence, and caused
the growth outlook to deteriorate.
As a result, the Greek economy contracted in
2015, and will remain in negative territory in 2016.
Public finances are performing marginally and the
stock of debt is once again on the rise.
Hopefully, the implementation of the newly
agreed ESM Programme, which was not at all
necessary at the beginning of 2015, with the
proper mix of fiscal measures, will help stabilise
the macroeconomic, fiscal and financial situation.
But the Government is already lagging behind in
its implementation.
The question now arising is “what should be done
now”, in order to stabilise the situation again and
get the country back on the path of sustainable
growth, taking also into account the refugee issue.
Given the objective limitations in the policy area,
and the fact that the accumulation of negative
dynamics in the economy cannot be reversed
automatically, Greece's course and success will
depend on how skilfully we will utilise time and
how effectively we will implement the most appro-
priate policies.
Priorities should be:
• the successful completion of the first assess-
ment of the programme;
• the shift of fiscal policy towards expenditure cuts
and the gradual reduction of the tax burden;
• the implementation of an efficient framework to
facilitate the resolution of NPLs;
• the gradual injection of liquidity into the econo-
my, by also paying arrears and safeguarding
sound public finances;
• the strengthening of tax administration, including
combating tax evasion;
• the fast implementation of the privatisation
programme; and
• the implementation of all the necessary struc-
tural reforms.
All the aforementioned steps and priorities are the
key preconditions that could establish the founda-
tions for returning to sustainable growth, generating
jobs and increasing prosperity.
Unfortunately, even if these preconditions soon
materialised, the economy would be found at the
stage it was in late 2014.
This means that, under the best possible condi-
tions, Greece will have lost at least two years.
Nonetheless, we urge the Government to move
swiftly and coherently, in a complementary and
effective manner, in parallel routes and appropri-
ate timing, building up again credibility and trust,
so that we can soon restore the necessary stabil-
ity to our economy.
Trade with Greece
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