Trade with Greece
28
Among others, the S&P 500 is expected to reach
1,450 points by the end of 2011; the euro/dollar
exchange rate is expected to stand at 1.50, gold
at 1,690 dollars, oil at 105 dollars and copper at
11,000 dollars/ton. Investors are recommended to
go short on the dollar/yuan exchange rate (esti-
mated return 6%), long on American banks (esti-
mated return 25%), long on the Nikkei index (esti-
mated return 20%) and long on a “basket” com-
prising oil, copper, cotton, soybeans and platinum
(estimated return 28%).
ING
Corporate profitability in emerging markets
(+20%) will by far outrun that of American and
European firms (+10%). Corporate profitability
growth, valuations and cash reserves will provide
a major boost to stock markets during 2011.
Financial strength lies in emerging markets and
corporations. The economic conjuncture offers
opportunities to investors who are willing to real-
istically exploit both the fixed income, and stock,
markets.
Increased real estate yields could be sustained in
2011, mainly owing to the fact that many real
estate companies have already refinanced their
loans, while their underlying commercial proper-
ties have already reached their turning points in
regard to vacancies and rents. Moreover, devel-
oped markets offer attractive dividend yields.
In the long run, emerging market currencies are
expected to revalue significantly in the long term,
while the structural revaluation of China’s Yuan
will probably be unavoidable.
Demand for raw materials will be sustained in
2011. Precious metals will reap the greatest ben-
efits, followed by industrial metals, Conditions
remain favourable for gold. In case currency wars
escalate to trade wars, commodities will be more
severely hit than any other type of asset.
NOMURA
2011 will be a “reinvestment year” for businesses
and “traditional” stock market investors alike,
while European stocks are expected to register a
13% gain. Although European stock exchanges
are facing the final stage of the sovereign debt cri-
sis, 2011 will be a good year for stocks.
Merger & acquisition activity will be increased,
and businesses willing and able to reinvent in
M&As will be rewarded by the market.
Greece is closer than Spain or Ireland to stabiliz-
ing its debt/GDP ratio; nonetheless, its debt
dynamics are more “problematic”. Primary sur-
pluses must remain at 6%, in order to restore the
debt/GDP ratio to 2009 levels by 2020. Growth is
expected to resume in the second half of 2011,
mainly driven by tourism and shipping. New chal-
lenges are expected to emerge in 2011, intensifying
the need to stretch out the repayment of the debt.
SCHRODERS
The year 2011 favours long positions in stocks,
preferably those of developed markets, mainly in
Japan and the US. In regard to alternative invest-
