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Trade with Greece
T
he positive effects from the disbursement of the
bailout tranche, the apparent recovery of our part-
ners’ confidence (especially the Europeans’) and
the actual interest for investments and acquisitions shown
by Third Countries, offer a valuable opportunity to restart
the economy on the basis of a new production-export
model.
According to the president of the Panhellenic Exporters
Association, Ms. Christina Sakellaridi: “The revival of the
country’s foreign trade, even the increase in imports, espe-
cially in the case of raw materials used for the production of
larger quantities of tradable Greek products, augurs well for
the year 2013, provided, above all, that the forecasts of
Greek and international organizations are realized, and liq-
uidity in the domestic market is enhanced. In case the viabil-
ity of the country’s export-oriented enterprises is secured
through access to new credit lines, the utilization of the
NSRF, as well as the payment of the state’s obligations to the
private sector then, despite the recessionary climate that
prevails in many European economies, Greek exports will
continue to grow in 2013. In other words, Greek exporters
are the ones that will continue to show the way towards the
Greek economy’s recovery. In the opposite case, the derail-
ing of export-oriented entrepreneurship –the engine of
recovery– will drag thousands of businesses, workers and
entire sectors down into much deeper recession.”
It is worth noting that both the OECD and the European
Commission recently predicted that in 2013 the growth rate
of Greece’s exports of goods and services will be the sec-
ond-highest since 2010. More specifically, the OECD pre-
dicts that total exports (of goods and services) will register
a 3% increase in 2013, as compared to a 5.2% increase in
2010 and a 2.9% decrease in 2012, while the Commission
sees an increase of 2.7% (as compared to a 5.2% increase
in 2010 and a 0.8% increase last year).
Current data show that, in the first ten-months of 2012
(January-October), merchandise exports, excluding oil
products, rose by 6.4%, to €14,014.8 million (US$18,040.8
million), from €13,168.2 million (US$18,536.7 million) in the
same period of 2011. (The tables provide a detailed break-
down of the top-ten categories of exports, according to
ELSTAT data.)
This growth was facilitated by last October’s significant
increase, when Greek merchandise exports, excluding oil
products, rose to €1,507.2 million (US$1,961.2 million)
from €1,343.5 million (US$1,846.9 million) in October 2011,
increased by 12.2%.
The increase of both imports and exports in October 2012
caused fluctuations in the course of the country’s trade bal-
ance. In October 2012, the trade deficit, excluding oil prod-
ucts, stood at €1,199.9 million (US$1,540.3 million), as
compared to €1,139.8 million (US$1,546.6 million) in the
same month of 2011, widened by 5.3%.
In contrast, during the entire period January-October 2012
the deficit continued to shrink, falling to €11,243.9 million
(US$14,289.4 million) from €13,970.7 million (US$19,414.8
million) in the same period of 2011, reduced by 19.5%.
The exporters themselves may express their satisfaction
for the growth of Greek exports despite the domestic reces-
sion, with both the economies of our major trading EU part-
ners also in crisis, both Greece and its European prospect
being the target of rumours and alarmism, and, above all,
with the tragic lack of liquidity in the domestic market, but
they also point out to the risks from complacency and the
non-resolution of major issues.
The continuation of export growth (the only positive eco-
nomic indicator for the past three-years) in 2013, is condi-
tional on the final and efficient resolution of the sector’s liq-
uidity problems. As stressed by the exporters’ representa-
tives, the immediate disbursement of VAT refunds, the uti-
lization of the NSRF for supporting extrovert entrepreneur-
ship and the implementation of the reform timetable by the
Ministry of Development, in conjunction with the mobiliza-
tion of both the country’s banking system and international
organizations, are necessary conditions for this to happen.
Otherwise, thousands of jobs will be lost, recession will
become two percentage points deeper than expected, and
both the country’s fiscal targets, and the possibility of
reducing the debt and restarting the economy, will get off
track.
