reduce their operating costs and improve the pro-
ductivity of their workforce.
As a matter of fact, Greek businesses have, since
2010, been facing increasingly harsher demand
and liquidity conditions.
In order to understand the enormity of the change
in the Greek economy’s macroeconomic aggre-
gates, it suffices to point out that at the dawn of
the twenty-first century Greek GDP was almost
equal to the GDP of all Balkan countries com-
bined, and slightly lower than Turkey’s. Today,
only Romania’s GDP is equal to that of Greece,
the Turkish economy is almost 4 times larger than
the Greek economy, and Greece remains stag-
nant, while the region’s economy is growing at
annual rates of 3%-5%.
Since 2008, the country has lost 27% of its GDP
and, to put things into perspective, it is enough to
say that during the Great Depression in the US
the economy managed to overcome its losses
and move from recession to growth in just four
years.
The year 2015 was probably the most difficult of
the past eight-years, as businesses struggled to
survive amidst an environment of persistent
uncertainty, capital controls, and scarce liquidity.
In 2012-2014, the Athens Exchange often
believed that the country’s real economy was
close to exiting the crisis. International houses
kept a close eye on developments in the Greek
economy and insisted on classifying the Athens
Exchange in the “developed capital market” cate-
gory.
Things changed in September 2014, when the
government of the day showed the first signs of
“reform fatigue”.
In September 2014, political developments
caused the ATHEX Composite Share Price Index
to fall for the first time in two years.
In the spring of 2016, also for the first time in the
past two years, the Greek capital market is
attempting to reverse its medium term downtrend.
As is usually the case, the first break of the down-
ward channels occurs with a spike in prices, to be
followed by a correction, which, nonetheless,
presents an opportunity for the market.
Given, however, that the Greek stock market has
inured its faithful investors to many dynamic
reversals, most local managers recommend
“strict money management” with a clear “reduced
risk-taking strategy”, leaving once again the
advantage of the first strike to foreign investment
houses.
Today, the vast majority of businesses operating
within Greece’s borders have to pursue a precau-
tionary policy in order to protect their liquidity, and
keep a low profile, possibly looking for a lower
starting point for 2016.
It is indeed telling that, in 2015, the turnover of all
ATHEX-listed companies did not exceed 66 billion
euros, reduced by 4.7% year-on-year.
Companies with a high exposure to the Greek
market also suffered the greatest drops in
turnover:
The drop in advertising expenditure led to a 15%
decrease of turnover in the Media sector, the drop
in construction activity led to a decrease in wood-
work and metallurgical operations and so on.
And this is precisely the optimists’ argument:
• Things have gone so bad in the Greek stock
market during the past few years that they can-
not possibly go any worse!
A typical example, which is repeatedly cited by
optimist, is the energy sector. While most pundits
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